Why every Ugandan should pay attention. What is next after the Supreme Court ruling on Besigye’s petition?

The major elections are over in Uganda and the poll fever is still on. On February 23, Ugandans elected their President and Members of Parliament in the country’s first ever-multiparty elections after 26 years under the individual merit movement system.

Ugandans continued to vote, this time for their Local Council Five Chairpersons and Councilors at those councils, Municipal Mayor and lately local council 3 chairpersons that ended on Friday.

This is a new trend in Uganda’s history since the last multiparty elections in 1980 that were contested by among others, President Yoweri Museveni. The elections for 1985 could not take place because of the rebellion in the country that later brought President Museveni to power in February 1986. Ever since, Uganda has had only two general elections, in 1996 and 2001, all of which have been held under the Movement system where one contests as an individual since all political parties had been banned. The parties are now back and the hot talk during political debates is party politics or first multiparty politics in the country.

The International media and the entire international community has blown it further, as ‘Uganda’s first Multiparty elections since President Yoweri Museveni came to power in 1986’. But a closer look at what is going on in Uganda portrays a contrary picture to what is being talked about to the extent that one can say that the ongoing election is neither based on the Movement nor the multiparty setting.

Nature of campaigns:
The word tubejeeko (let us leave them go) must still be fresh in the minds of Ugandans and could have been responsible for this trend. During the campaigns in the referendum that led to the ‘opening up of political space’, President Yoweri Museveni told Ugandans that the referendum was meant to allow those who did not believe in the Movement system to leave. He should have told them that he had also formed the NRM. He continued during the Presidential campaigns by referring to the FDC as a bunch of people who were chased from the NRM.

To some people, it still looks like we are still under the movement system and the word political party is far from their ears.

As though he was still trying to reform the movement, as was his campaign slogan, Dr. Besigye told the opposition to stop looking at each other as Democratic Party, Uganda Peoples Congress, Conservative Party or Forum for Democratic Change but as a combined force to oust president Museveni.

This in a way played to Besigye’s advantage, as some people did not look at him as the FDC candidate but a credible challenger to President Yoweri Museveni who would be voted for by all people who needed change. Indeed, his party’s ‘One Uganda, One people’ slogan was overshadowed by the agende (he [Museveni] must go) slogan.

Nature of candidates in the elections:
In the February 23rd polls, four political parties fielded candidates for presidency and one candidate, Dr. Abed Bwanika stood on individual merit as was the case under the Movement system.

Others including President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement, Dr. Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change, Ssebaana Kizito of the Democratic Party and Miria Kalule Obote of the Uganda People’s Congress respectively stood on the ticket of their respective political parties.

At Parliamentary level, there were more independents than the total number of opposition candidates combined and the same is happening in lower local council elections where independents are also winning the polls.

What is more interesting and surprising is that people who were at the helm of advocating for political pluralism were among those that turned around and stood on individual merit, the method they had been fighting as the proponents of the Movement system. Others, including President Museveni, stood on their party tickets.

For example Uganda Peoples Congress iron lady, Cecilia Ogwal and other UPC leaders like Ben Wacha (Kwania), Okullo Epak (Oyam South), Betty Amongi (Apac women), Charles Angiro (Erute) stood as independents. Ogwal lost to her fellow UPC member, Joseph Akena, a son to former Uganda President, Milton Obote.

At the local level, there were also more independents than the total number of opposition candidates combined and more than half the number of NRM candidates. Statistics from the Electoral Commission indicated that independent candidates for LC V chairmen were 62 more than the opposition candidates combined who made 40.

Voting pattern at all levels:
One would expect that being sponsored by the party gives them a big muscle to get more votes, but this is not the fact according to the ongoing polls which offer signs of ‘individual meritism’.

Take an example of Kampala City where the new Mayor Elect, Hajji Nasser Ssebaggala and his close challengers, Peter Sematimba both standing as independents beat party sponsored candidates by getting 53 percent and 40.4 percent respectively.

Hajji Hasib Takuba, the DP candidate who refused to step down for Ssebaggala, NRM sponsored candidate, Wilson Kyambadde and independents Naiga Sserwanga and Senseko Kulubya got 3.1 percent, 2.6 percent, 0.3 and 0.6 respectively.

This is almost the same scenario when it comes to the Presidential elections, especially in northern Uganda, where many voters cast their vote to the main opposition leader and FDC President, Dr. Kizza Besigye for Presidency and voted for other party candidates in other polls.

In Lira Municipality, for example, voters overwhelmingly cast their vote for Joseph Akena, a UPC candidate for Parliament and Dr. Kizza Besigye, an FDC Candidate for Presidency. This was in spite of the fact that UPC also had Miria Kalule Obote, a mother to Akena in the Presidential race against Besigye, President Museveni, Ssebaana Kizito and Abedi Bwanika.

Also, as was the case with the Mayoral elections, independent, Abedi Bwanika beat Kalule Obote, a candidate of a party that once ruled Uganda, by polling by 0.95 against 0.82 percent. This trend did not get many candidates unaware as some exploited it to get votes by being behind popular people in their areas other than their political parties.

You will recall that known DP officials like Kawempe South MP-elect, Sebuliba Mutumba, Kawempe north MP-elect, Latif Ssebagala and Kampala Mayor-elect, Nasser Ssebagala were behind Dr. Besigye and not Ssebaana Kizito.

Love for individual merit:
Uganda may have gone into party politics, but many Ugandans still enjoyed the individual merit system. In fact some people will tell you that if it were not the corruption in the NRM and the abuse of the movement system by the same people who started it, they would have preferred to stay in the individual merit system.

One of such people is former Ethics and Integrity Minister and Mbarara Municipality Woman MP, Miria Matembe who was widely known to be from the FDC but decided to stand as an independent.

Matembe, who fell out with President Museveni over his demand for the third term in power, says that she preferred to stand as an independent because she didn’t want to divide her constituency-the women. She however lost in the polls after the campaign against her, by especially the Land and Environment Minister, Kahinda Otafiire.

The Secretary for International Relations at the FDC, Reagan Okumu says that there were many people who were like Matembe- especially in the western party of the country. Okumu says that many people decided to stand as independents for fear of intimidation from government agents.

So, what kind of electoral system are we practically operating in? A Movement system, multiparty system or hybrid political system?

Ugandans went to the polls on Thursday February 23rd to elect a president who will lead the country for the next five years, after more than two months of rigorous campaigns.

The Electoral Commission has declared incumbent President Gen. Yoweri Museveni as the winner with 59.28% of the votes cast. His closest challenge was from Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye who amassed 37.36% of the votes cast, leaving the other three candidates to share less than 4% of the votes cast.

Yet some people are saying independent candidate Abed Bwanika who managed only 0.95% of the votes is the real winner of this 2006 election. Why and how, you must be asking.

True the majority of Ugandans voted Yoweri Museveni or Kizza Besigye but many were silently wishing they voted for Bwanika, 38, who has exhibited confidence and consistency in his spirited bid to occupy State House for the next five years.

Bwanika is arguably a darling of the majority of Ugandans in this time because he is undoubtedly the ideal candidate many Ugandans would have liked to vote for and have as a leader of the country but historical factors did not allow many Ugandans that choice.

Many Ugandans voted Museveni because he is a man they have known as President for the last 20 years, a man with considerable achievements after the turbulent 1970s and early 80s; a confident man that they believe is better to trust to be at the helm of determining the affairs of the country under a multi-party system of governance.

On the other hand, many other Ugandans voted for Dr. Kizza Besigye in order to get Museveni out of Office, whom many accuse for economic and political mismanagement of the country, saying political parties are bad and gagging them for 20 years only to amend the constitution and return to seek a new mandate as a party (NRM-O) candidate.

The stringent rivalry if not conflict between these two leading candidates has reminded many Ugandans of the short distance the country may have moved in the direction of appreciating divergent political opinion. The two candidates are so against each other even to what some have called personal levels and have transferred the same conflict and hatred to the majority of their respective supporters.

This is why there has been widespread violence and more violence is expected, as all the two camps seem to believe they must either win or the other party looses. Dr. Besigye’s FDC has refused to accept the results declared by the Electoral Commission saying President Museveni scored less that the required 50% according to their own vote tally.

It is this kind of situation that is forcing many more sober Ugandans to assert that Bwanika, a man for whom no one has anger against and a man who has elicited no anger against other candidates, is therefore the best candidate for a country looking for further healing from a violent and divisive past.

“Abed Bwanika is the real winner in this election. He has maintained a middle ground. Unlike other candidates who have been trading insults at each other, he has discussed issues on all his campaign rallies, telling people what he would like to do for Uganda in the next five years. This is the candidate many of us would like to lead Uganda,” says Hilda Mukisa of Makerere University.

Many people have described Bwanika as a brilliant and good candidate who was on Thursday not voted into the Presidential office because many Ugandans do not want to see their man, Museveni being defeated in an election, and an almost equal number of Ugandans are prepared to do all they can to see long serving Museveni out of power. It is only Dr. Besigye who has proved a real threat to the domineering Museveni in all of his 20 years at the helm of the country.

“Four presidential candidates combined do not measure up to Dr. Abed Bwanika. If whatever we say is what we do, Dr. Bwanika is the man. It is time Ugandans voted wisely, not voting for someone because he is an incumbent, a soldier, rich or a party leader. I didn’t think Bwanika will win, but my vote didnt go with the wind. It went where integrity lies, to Bwanika,” says Jonathan Akweteireho of Kampala.

While Ugandans are almost equally divided over whether the February 23rd 2006 elections will be free and fair according to opinion polls, opposition political parties are taking no chances and have asked for their representatives to be allowed into the vote tallying room, a request highly criticized by the Electoral Commission and government.

The Electoral Commission announced recently that Mandela International Stadium, Namboole will be the national tallying center and invited representatives of political parties to be present there beginning Friday February 24th when vote counting begins.

The Electoral Commission Chairman, Engineer Dr. Badru Kiggundu has sternly told the nation that only Electoral Commission Officials will be allowed in the tallying room to allow efficiency and avoid interference with the vote tallying process.

But opposition political parties have asked for their representatives to be allowed inside the votes tallying room as a way of promoting transparency by the election governing body which has had to make a lot of hard decisions in organizing the countrys first multi-party polls in more than 25years. Decisions like allowing the main opposition leader (Dr. Kizza Besigye) who was in prison by nomination day to get nominated.

The EC is being hounded and criticized by most members of the opposition for being partial in favour of government (and Candidate/President Yoweri Museveni who appointed them), while the government has on many occasions accused the Electoral Commission of favouring the opposition and siding with donors and being anti-government.

The Chairperson of the Human Rights Network, Jesca Nkuhe says party representatives should be allowed into tallying rooms because there are precedents to show that votes can be tampered with in tallying rooms.

Elections can be rigged right from the grassroots to the Electoral commission. Many times results declared at the Electoral Commission are different from those declared at polling stations and it may be late or ineffective to petition. We want party representatives allowed in the tally room. We want maximum transparency and accountability, she told Journalists on Friday.

There is no need for parties to be represented in the vote tally room because all parties have been allowed up to two representatives at each polling station countrywide. Each party can tally their own votes. Lets leave the vote tally room to the Electoral Commissions technical people who have been trained to do the job, says Simon Kigozi who is on NRM-Os Election Task Force.

Kigozi says unlike in 1980 elections where voting was taking place in a dark room, this election is being held in broad day light. Even the ballot boxes are transparent, he says.

However, Democratic Partys Ambrose Bukenya says fairness from the Electoral Commission can be expected if all political parties participated in the appointment of the Electoral Commission. We dont expect fairness from a government elected commission. You can understand our worries that something may happen, he says.

The Electoral Commission has however come in strongly to assure Ugandans that the elections will be free of partial tampering at any level.

Results will be tallied at each polling station and declared there and then. So no one should worry since all political parties are represented at each poling station. There are also poll observers. From the polling station, the results will be taken to the Sub-county, then to the District from where they will be forwarded to the national polling centre at Nambole, says Electoral Commission Spokesman, Okello Jabweli.

Other than presence in the tallying room, The EC recently announced a ban on the congregation of groups of more than 12 people at polling stations on polling days.

The EC issued that guideline to target paramilitary groups, the so-called militia trained by various political organisations (youth brigades) to purportedly guard the vote by keeping vigil at polling stations, a move hailed by many political observers.

The Democratic Party, the Forum for Democratic Change parties, and the National Resistance Movement-Organisation have militia youth wings, and have been accused of failure to enforce discipline in their ranks. Both presidential candidates (especially NRM-Os Museveni and FDCs Besigye) have been urging their supporters to stay at polling stations until vote counting is done.

But in the same tone, many political commentators have appealed to EC not to use any law to stop citizens from guarding their votes since the law allows people to remain at polling stations after they have cast their vote or merely as onlookers.

But Electoral Commission Spokesman, Okello Jabweli says the law allows people who have finished casting their vote to stay at least 100 meters away from the polling station to avoid congestion and allow other people a chance to peacefully cast their votes.

Some people have however expressed concern that the EC’s recent decree that people don’t congregate within 100 metres of a polling station are not anywhere within the law and are bound to either create a pretext for rigging or be quoted as inadvertent activities around elections that could be construed as instruments of rigging.

Standing 100 metres away from a polling booth, that is the length of a standard football field away, is tantamount to not guarding the votes. Security organisations, and others, mandated to guard polling stations could abuse or exploit the guidelines to enhance impure agendas, says Peter Mwesige, Executive Editor of the Daily Monitor.

This will add to opposition claims that the political ground is not level, fearing Museveni who has been around as President for two decades knows his way around many things and people and can sway the vote even in the vote tallying room.

Ugandans seem to acknowledge that the problems, which are rocking the country today and those to come, are beyond the human efforts and that divine intervention is now needed. This was manifested on February 14, 2006 through the National Prayer Day organized by the born-again Christian community in Kampala.

The prayers themed Repentance and Reconciliation in our Nation was attended by more than 500 people including pastors and some top political leaders of the land who prayed for repentance and reconciliation especially in politics for a new start and cried to God for forgiveness at the Mandela National Stadium, Namboole. They prayed for free and fair elections, honesty to stop corruption, economic transformation, resettlement of the people in IDP camps and reconstruction of Northern Uganda, the rule of law, the stopping bloodshed and violence in all forms among other issues of national concern.

Ruth Birabwa in the opening prayer asked God to bless Uganda and the speakers of the day and censor their words in order to bring about peace, unity and forgiveness in Uganda. Lord let the peace and forgiveness we receive from this place spread to all parts of Uganda and create a difference in the lives of the people, Birabwa prayed.

After the opening prayer, a string of prayers punctuated with music and scripture reading sessions ensued before President Museveni said a humbling prayer.

Dear God our God, I stand here to acknowledge the sovereignty which you entrusted in my hands as the head of the state, I know its not by human power but because of your divine choice. Thank you for the knowledge and understanding you have given me for all this long. I realize that you have given me great favor from you and your people. As your people, we people of Uganda, we have recognized the evil of the present and the past and here we pray for your forgivingness. I pray for your divine power and blessing with each step I take in the next five years as you have always done, prayed the President of Uganda from a written text.

Other prayers
Pastor Deo Musoke prayed for free and fair elections. He begun by asking God to cover Uganda with his blood and bring peaceful elections because Uganda is his country and should not allow it go to the dogs due to election violence and miss handling of the election process. He then asked the audience to raise their hands to join him in prayer, asking God to bless Uganda to exercise sanity and fairness in the 2006 elections.

The pastor said that leadership comes from God and that since God knows the hearts of all men, He should guide Ugandans to choose the right leader to exercise His rule over Uganda.

Musoke prayed for good leaders right from Local Council 1 to the President who are nationalistic, developmental and God fearing. He prayed for president Museveni saying that God should give him another term of office because he has done well and that he is the only leader in the history of Uganda who has acknowledged born-again churches as rightful places of worship. This seemingly confirmed earlier allegations that born-again churches are mobilizing their followers to vote for Museveni.

Then there was Pastor John Bunjo who got to the mike and prayed against the most cancerous problem affecting Uganda today-corruption. He pointed out that Uganda Revenue Authority, Kampala City Council and the Presidents office as the most corrupt offices in Uganda, which need cleaning up as soon as possible if Uganda is to develop.

Bunjo asked God to grant Uganda, leaders of integrity, honesty, and with a nationalistic heart. The pastor prophesized that corrupt officers will not serve in the new government which Ugandans are going to vote in the forthcoming national elections. You will remember that Uganda has featured in many reports as the most corrupt country in Africa, at one time holding the second most corrupt country position in the whole world. Currently, there is a commission of inquiry into the misuse of the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB. A number of shocking revelations have already been put to light and Ugandans are waiting to see how the government will respond.

Economic transformation was yet another issue presented to God for his merciful attention. Before Pastor Aloysius Bugingo could start praying for economic transformation, he briefed the audience about the economic status of Uganda. Uganda is among the 20 least developed countries in the world and due to this fact, Ugandans are discriminated against and labeled beggars, educated Bugingo.

Bugingo asked God to bless Ugandans with the spirit of hard work and investment in order to chase poverty with homegrown strategies rather than running to foreigners for help. He then cursed the spirit of war and foolishness, which he said have escalated poverty in the country.

Requests and promises
The leader of the National Prayer and Reconciliation Team, pastor Joseph Serwadda requested the President to set up a trust and reconciliation commission to spearhead reconciliation and forgiveness in Uganda for harmonious existence of all Ugandans. He went further and requested that February 14, 2006 be made a National Day of Prayer because even the world over it is cerebrated as the day of love (valentine).

However, when the President stood to pray for the nation, he instead promised to change the law, which requires born-again churches to register and renew annually with the ministry of internal affairs and promised to direct the ministry to acknowledge them just like other religious groups. The news was received with ululations and cheers from the mammoth crowd.

Pastor Serwadda expressed happiness towards the president for accepting this sensitive repentance prayer and reconciliation event to take place and for attending it in person. Of the 5 presidential candidates in the February 23rd election, only President Museveni attended this national prayer day.

The decreasing levels of Lake Victoria are affecting East Africa’s economy. Providing potable water, hydroelectric power and inland water transport, the lake also supports many different industries, such as agriculture, trade, tourism, wildlife and fisheries. The lake basin serves as a major source of employment for an estimated 30 million people. Approximately three million people are engaged, directly or indirectly, in subsistence and commercial fishing, and more than 80 percent of the population is engaged in agricultural production as small-scale farmers and livestock owners.

The low water levels have begun to affect the country’s electricity supply. Uganda’s capital, Kampala, has experienced unprecedented power cuts recently. The country has resorted to severe power rationing, with some areas having electricity for less than five hours in a day. Ugandan industrialists have already predicted hard times ahead for the industrial sector, saying escalation in operation costs will force them to shut down, costing thousands of jobs. The Chairman of the Uganda Manufacturers’ Association, Abid Alam said his organization was pushing for dialogue with the energy ministry to mitigate the problem.

“We want the government to subsidize the cost of fuel so that industries can power their own generators, and the government should expediently increase thermal-electricity generation as stopgap measures,” he said.

The Secretary General of the East African Community, Amanya Mushega says the rapidly decreasing levels of Lake Victoria threatens huge trade disruptions among the three East African countries (Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania) that heavily depend on lake borne shipping. Mushega who was speaking hours after a new report accused Uganda of contributing to the drop of the lake water levels secretly said that Uganda along with Kenya and Tanzania would badly be affected by the decline.

“We are soon going to have serious strains on trade because of the alarming receding lake water levels. Shipment charges are already skyrocketing and this will eventually impact on the cost of trading among the three countries, ” Mushega told journalists in Kenya.

Demonstration over abrupt power shortage coming:
The National Tax Payers and Tax Protection Organization (NTAPO) has threatened to mobilize a national demonstration in April against abrupt power cuts in the country. The National Executive Director NTAPO, Joseph Kasibante says that the ungazzeted irregular power load shedding has made the presence of electricity useless. Kasibante asked power suppliers-Umeme Ltd to publicize their load shedding schedules to enable the public to cope up with the system. However, his appeal came on the same day the power distributors published a power load shedding schedule for February.

According to the schedule published in the Monitor and New Vision newspapers, an area which gets power during the day, does not get any at night and an area cannot have power for two consecutive days. The day time load shedding begins at 6:00am and ends at 6:00 pm while the night load shedding starts at 6:00 pm and ends at 6:00 am.

On Friday, Umeme said in a statement that the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited is generating only 170 MW instead of the installed capacity of 300 MW because of the decreasing levels of Lake Victoria.

The Daily Monitor quoted the Umeme Manager for Corporate Communication, Robert Kisubi, as saying on Monday that as the water levels drop, the electricity sector must reduce usage of Lake Victoria water by increasing the load shedding. Although the explanation by Kisubi could be genuine, it took some business people by surprise as many were not expecting a decrease in load shedding. The fear, especially by those businesses renting premises that use a standby generator, is that they will get rent increment from their landlords while those renting in premises without generators fear losing business all together. With the planned closing of one of the power dams in Jinja as a measure to control the water loss from the worlds second largest lake, the situation is only expected to be worse and daytime load shedding could increasingly be experienced daily.

About 90 percent of all the power consumed in Uganda is generated from the two dams at Jinja. Although, Uganda has some hydroelectric potential along the River Nile, only a fraction of it has been developed. As a result, Uganda is experiencing insufficient power. Currently, the country’s power demand is greater than the supply, with fewer than 10 percent of the population having regular access to electricity yet many towns do not have any power supply.

According to Kulls calculations, the water level in the lake is almost half a meter lower than what it should be, with water releases at Ugandas Owen Falls and Kiira dams at almost twice the permitted rates.

Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest fresh water lake, is shared by the East African nations of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It is one of the most highly populated areas in the world, and the surrounding basin is intensely cultivated. Water levels have plummeted since 2003, and are now at an 80-year low.

However, the United Nations office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs quotes Ugandan authorities dismissing Kull’s conclusions and blamed an ongoing drought in the region for the lake’s low water levels. The Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment, Karisa Kabagambe, said the impact of prolonged drought has been severe and that all the lakes in the region have had declining water levels in spite of the fact that Kiira Dam is not connected to them.

Kabagambe says the reduced water levels are the result of a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in rainfall across the lake’s catchment areas during the past two years. But Kull insists that the dams on Lake Victoria were as much to blame for the low water levels as the drought. He adds that if the dams had operated as agreed, the drought would have accounted for only half the water loss.

British engineers designed the Owens Falls dam to generate hydropower without disrupting the natural flow of the water from the lake. A formula known as the agreed curve was set, detailing the maximum water flow of between 300 cu.m. and 1,700 cu.m. per second, depending on the water level in the lake.

According to engineers, the problems began in 2002 when Uganda finished building the Kiira hydropower complex in the eastern town of Jinja after the second dam created a second outlet at a lower gradient than the natural barrier.

Kull estimated that over the last two years, the two Ugandan dams have released water at an average of almost 1,250 cu.m. per second – 55 percent more than is permitted given current water levels.